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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, although analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a campaign focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.