Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
